Monday November 03, 2008 at 9:43

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What states to watch

Nate Silver, at fivethirtyeight.com, tells us what states matter. He gives McCain Florida and North Carolina, among others and reduces the election to this:

  1. Win Pennsylvania and ANY ONE of Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, or Nevada (NV results in a 269-269 tie).
  2. Win Ohio and EITHER Colorado OR Virginia.
  3. Win Colorado AND Virginia AND Nevada.

If we give Obama Colorado, given his advantage in early voting there, then it comes down to:

  1. Win Pennsylvania
  2. Win Ohio
  3. Win Virginia and Nevada

Virginia’s polls close at 7pm tomorrow. If Obama wins Virginia then this is over.

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