Friday October 31, 2008 at 14:20

Looks like the Obama-mercial didn’t hurt and probably helped. In the wake of his 30-min ad, Obama hits his largest margin in Gallup’s Tracking Likely Voter (Traditional) model. In the expanded model he leads 52-43, in the traditional model 51-43, and among registered voters 52-41. This doesn’t look like tightening. Gallup tracking polls use a 3-day rolling average, so this includes a full two-days after the ad on Oct. 28.