Election 2008

Is McCaind done in Florida, Ohio, & Pennsylvania?

Quinnipiac University has Obama up in all three battleground states (FL, OH, PA). They think McCain is done in Ohio and Pennsylvania, but has a chance in Florida. If the first two are true, then what difference does Florida make? None. McCain can’t win without all three. Here’s the details:

• Florida: Obama 47 to McCain’s 45 percent, compared to 49 - 44 percent October 23;
• Ohio: Obama up 51 - 42 percent, compared to 52 - 38 percent;
• Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 53 - 41 percent, compared to 53 - 40 percent last time.

And the cross-tabs:

Florida

Looking at all Florida likely voters, men go to McCain 49 - 44 percent. Women back Obama 50 - 42 percent. The Republican leads 53 - 40 percent among white voters, 72 - 21 percent among evangelical Christians and 53 - 42 percent among Catholics. The Democrat leads 75 - 20 percent among Jews and 56 - 39 percent among voters 18 - 34 years old. Voters 35 to 54 split 46 - 46 percent, and voters over 55 go 47 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama. Independent voters back Obama 47 - 39 percent.

Ohio:

Among all Ohio likely voters, the Democrat leads 55 - 36 percent among women. McCain gets 48 percent of men to Obama’s 45 percent. White voters split with 47 percent for McCain and 46 percent for Obama. Black voters back Obama 89 - 1 percent. The Democrat leads 59 - 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, while voters 35 to 54 split with 47 percent for McCain and 46 percent for Obama. Voters over 55 go Democratic 50 - 40 percent. Independent voters go 50 - 38 percent for the Democrat.

Pennsylvania:

Obama leads 59 - 35 percent with women, while men back McCain by a narrow 49 - 46 percent. White voters split with 48 percent for Obama and 47 percent for McCain. Black voters back Obama 95 - 2 percent. He also leads 61 - 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, 51 - 43 percent among voters 35 to 54 years old and 51 - 42 percent among voters over 55. Independent voters back the Democrat 54 - 35 percent.

One week to make up a lot of ground. I don’t think McCain has the news cycles.